Sorry. Bad pun. Note to self. Headline writing days are over.
As I predicted, McCain failed to win in Michigan. And the polls are showing some definite problems. In fact, the results tonight show us something that probably should have been obvious by now. The Republican base doesn't like him, which makes life in a primary very hard.
McCain won big in New Hampshire, which is a state known for it's independent votes. He didn't need the Republican base there, but he did need it in Michigan, and those votes went to Romney tonight, with a fair amount going to Huckabee.
His votes came from three groups, or at least from people belonging to one or more of these three groups. People who don't like President Bush. People who are pro-choice. And people who are against the war. This is hardly the Republican base and exactly why he fares better among independents.
I am a bit puzzled by this last group seeing as McCain has been the biggest proponent of the surge and has said he will keep fighting the fight until satisfied it is over.
McCain works better as an independent or in a general election, but based on these results, he will have a hard time getting there.
If McCain ends up losing the nomination, I think the door is wide open for a Michael Bloomberg independent run. In fact, I would be shocked if his polling lets him enter under any other scenario. If this happened, I think McCain would make a very interesting running mate option.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Mitt's a hit
Mitt Romney won his home state and jumped early to his evening speech, cutting off John McCain. As I type, he is focusing on his outsider status, and he is going to try to ride this to victory.
I am a bit surprised at how much he is leading tonight, but the numbers are slightly skewed. It's important to remember that his dad was the governor of this state in the not too distant past. He's got history, and I think this worked more in his favor than his Washington outsider approach.
America wants change. There's no doubt about that, but I don't know if he is the right person to be focusing on change. Sure, it's the buzz word, but he is about as old school Republican as this race has to offer.
On a side note, Mitt referred to all three major Democrats tonight, and it appears he is staying away from annointing anyone there. This is a definite change in tone.
On another side note, Mitt just asked his audience three questions. Is Washington broken? Can it be fixed? And is this the team to do it? I would be squirming in my seat if I was part of his campaign. Candidates can't ask questions when they are on the stage, especially when pushing for big change. They need to be giving answers, and asking questions, even rhetorical ones gives of an unconscious message of doubt. That was a mistake, and he will need to stop that little trick if he wants to win.
I am a bit surprised at how much he is leading tonight, but the numbers are slightly skewed. It's important to remember that his dad was the governor of this state in the not too distant past. He's got history, and I think this worked more in his favor than his Washington outsider approach.
America wants change. There's no doubt about that, but I don't know if he is the right person to be focusing on change. Sure, it's the buzz word, but he is about as old school Republican as this race has to offer.
On a side note, Mitt referred to all three major Democrats tonight, and it appears he is staying away from annointing anyone there. This is a definite change in tone.
On another side note, Mitt just asked his audience three questions. Is Washington broken? Can it be fixed? And is this the team to do it? I would be squirming in my seat if I was part of his campaign. Candidates can't ask questions when they are on the stage, especially when pushing for big change. They need to be giving answers, and asking questions, even rhetorical ones gives of an unconscious message of doubt. That was a mistake, and he will need to stop that little trick if he wants to win.
The Republican Howard Dean?
It's mop-up time for everyone except Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee is doing his best right now to convince the country he is still in the race. He shouldn't have to do much convincing, as he is still in the race, but if he doesn't make a strong showing in the next few contests, he is going to have a all-or-nothing Super Tuesday on February 5.
Huckabee is in danger of becoming the Republican version of Howard Dean, minus the psychotic scream. If he ends up bowing out early, he is going to have to worry about having peaked too early. It's a problem in sports where a team ends up peaking a few weeks too early or the first round of playoffs. He needs to be in this to the end.
This might be problematic, as he didn't even come close to winning in a state where he should have put up some number despite strong competition from Romney and McCain.
For Huckabee to stay in this race, he is going to have to do something more than just campaign well. He is good in front of crowds, and he has a somewhat populist message, but he doesn't sound optimistic enough in my mind. He needs to fuel his populism into some positive momentum and focus on that instead of trying to simply keep up with the two men who finished ahead of him tonight.
Huckabee is in danger of becoming the Republican version of Howard Dean, minus the psychotic scream. If he ends up bowing out early, he is going to have to worry about having peaked too early. It's a problem in sports where a team ends up peaking a few weeks too early or the first round of playoffs. He needs to be in this to the end.
This might be problematic, as he didn't even come close to winning in a state where he should have put up some number despite strong competition from Romney and McCain.
For Huckabee to stay in this race, he is going to have to do something more than just campaign well. He is good in front of crowds, and he has a somewhat populist message, but he doesn't sound optimistic enough in my mind. He needs to fuel his populism into some positive momentum and focus on that instead of trying to simply keep up with the two men who finished ahead of him tonight.
Monday, January 14, 2008
And it's off to the races...
Tomorrow night is going to be interesting, but the results of the Michigan primary will not likely determine the outcome of the Republican nomination. The one exception might be if McCain trounces the rest of his opponents. After looking at the polls, I don't think that is going to happen. In fact, Mitt Romney may pull this off.
Michigan is a curious state when it comes to the Republican primary. It is the fourth state to choose delegates, and it tends to vote liberal. The reason the placement is important is because it can cement a candidates position if he, or she, has already won the first three states. But right now, three separate candidates have won three separate states. And while Michigan is big, it isn't big enough to sway the rest of the country.
On the surface, McCain has the best chance in this state. Michigan is a working class state with fairly liberal social leanings. McCain should mix with these people better than Romney. Just recently McCain has pulled a couple of points above Romney, so he definitely has the momentum. The problem is that we have already seen what can happen when another candidate is on the ropes and needs to energize his, or her, supporters.
While I think this race is going to be close between these two men, I expect Romney's supporters to come out in force and eek out a victory for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see McCain win though, and I think that the odds would be in his favor if Vegas had a line on this battle.
Huckabee should come in third again, and Ron Paul may come in a surprise fourth over Giuliani and Thompson. This would be a definite victory for him, but Giuliani is counting on the big states where he still has a lead to bring him back. Thompson will likely drop out of the race sometime soon. He doesn't have the money to stay in the race or the support. And while he showed some life in the last debate, I just don't think he has the will to keep up his campaign.
I will be watching closely to see who he throws his support behind. He will definitely not support the "liberal" Huckabee. I doubt he has much love for Rudy either. McCain and Romney have the best chance of earning his support, if he offers it to anyone. And if it really matters.
Michigan is a curious state when it comes to the Republican primary. It is the fourth state to choose delegates, and it tends to vote liberal. The reason the placement is important is because it can cement a candidates position if he, or she, has already won the first three states. But right now, three separate candidates have won three separate states. And while Michigan is big, it isn't big enough to sway the rest of the country.
On the surface, McCain has the best chance in this state. Michigan is a working class state with fairly liberal social leanings. McCain should mix with these people better than Romney. Just recently McCain has pulled a couple of points above Romney, so he definitely has the momentum. The problem is that we have already seen what can happen when another candidate is on the ropes and needs to energize his, or her, supporters.
While I think this race is going to be close between these two men, I expect Romney's supporters to come out in force and eek out a victory for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see McCain win though, and I think that the odds would be in his favor if Vegas had a line on this battle.
Huckabee should come in third again, and Ron Paul may come in a surprise fourth over Giuliani and Thompson. This would be a definite victory for him, but Giuliani is counting on the big states where he still has a lead to bring him back. Thompson will likely drop out of the race sometime soon. He doesn't have the money to stay in the race or the support. And while he showed some life in the last debate, I just don't think he has the will to keep up his campaign.
I will be watching closely to see who he throws his support behind. He will definitely not support the "liberal" Huckabee. I doubt he has much love for Rudy either. McCain and Romney have the best chance of earning his support, if he offers it to anyone. And if it really matters.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Candidate for change?
It seems like I harp on Hillary, and people around me know I don't care for her much. For a variety of reasons, this election season is coming down to change. We all want it, and I think there is a reason.
I'm fairly young, at least I like to tell people I am. So I might look at thing without a lot of perspective. However, the Clintons and Bushes have held the top executive position in the country for almost three-quarters of my life, and maybe that's what my dislike for Hillary comes down to.
After 20 years in charge, I want some change. It doesn't seem like there has been a lot of it over the past two decades, despite party switches. And four or eight more years of this reign just doesn't sound good to me.
I think this is an underlying part of what makes her campaign so complex. On one hand, America likes what they are familiar with. On the other, polls show the country says they want change. It's just hard to make that switch, which is why I think we saw her bounce back in New Hampshire. That state especially like to buck the national trend and is fiercely independent. Vote first or die? Seriously. While they don't want to just hand things over to Hillary, I think they were opposed to crowning Senator Obama. Maybe they, like me, just wanted to keep things interesting.
Either way, it will be interesting to see if America really wants change or ends up finding solace in familiarity.
I'm fairly young, at least I like to tell people I am. So I might look at thing without a lot of perspective. However, the Clintons and Bushes have held the top executive position in the country for almost three-quarters of my life, and maybe that's what my dislike for Hillary comes down to.
After 20 years in charge, I want some change. It doesn't seem like there has been a lot of it over the past two decades, despite party switches. And four or eight more years of this reign just doesn't sound good to me.
I think this is an underlying part of what makes her campaign so complex. On one hand, America likes what they are familiar with. On the other, polls show the country says they want change. It's just hard to make that switch, which is why I think we saw her bounce back in New Hampshire. That state especially like to buck the national trend and is fiercely independent. Vote first or die? Seriously. While they don't want to just hand things over to Hillary, I think they were opposed to crowning Senator Obama. Maybe they, like me, just wanted to keep things interesting.
Either way, it will be interesting to see if America really wants change or ends up finding solace in familiarity.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
A funny thing happened...
Nine days from now, the respected voters of South Carolina will head to the polls for their primary, and John McCain appears to have the lead if we can believe the polls any more. I'm kidding. I still have faith in them, despite the New Hampshire fiasco.
But his lead reminds me of another South Carolina primary that cost him the election when he ran agains President Bush. That was my first presidential campaign where I spent a bit of time on the front lines with the candidates.
The Saturday before election day, GW called in the big guns for some help. This came from his little brother in Florida, who flew up with a bunch of supporters from Florida to go door-to-door an pass out Florida oranges and spread the good news. As I wandered with them from house-to-house, I absent-mindedly picked up an orange and noticed the label. Sunkist. Grown in California. Nothing like a bit of honest-to-goodness West Coast liberal oranges to spread the George Bush love.
I thought it funny at least.
And if you're wondering, GW comes by his charming personality naturally. Those Bush boys know how to work a crowd, and more than that they know how to work an individual.
Oh, and as for the primary in South Carolina this year, I have a feeling that McCain just might redeem himself. I don't want to sound like someone jumping on the bandwagon because Romney and even Huckabee both have good chances here, but South Carolina usually likes the establishment candidates. And in this case, I think McCain fits the bill.
But his lead reminds me of another South Carolina primary that cost him the election when he ran agains President Bush. That was my first presidential campaign where I spent a bit of time on the front lines with the candidates.
The Saturday before election day, GW called in the big guns for some help. This came from his little brother in Florida, who flew up with a bunch of supporters from Florida to go door-to-door an pass out Florida oranges and spread the good news. As I wandered with them from house-to-house, I absent-mindedly picked up an orange and noticed the label. Sunkist. Grown in California. Nothing like a bit of honest-to-goodness West Coast liberal oranges to spread the George Bush love.
I thought it funny at least.
And if you're wondering, GW comes by his charming personality naturally. Those Bush boys know how to work a crowd, and more than that they know how to work an individual.
Oh, and as for the primary in South Carolina this year, I have a feeling that McCain just might redeem himself. I don't want to sound like someone jumping on the bandwagon because Romney and even Huckabee both have good chances here, but South Carolina usually likes the establishment candidates. And in this case, I think McCain fits the bill.
So you're sayin' there's a chance...
Multiple news outlets are reporting New York's mayor Michael Bloomberg is polling the country to see if he can run a viable campaign as a third party candidate. I would say this is pretty old news, but it is interesting to hear it finally coming out.
As I mentioned previously, I think the most likely scenario where he runs is if Hillary and Huckabee win the nominations. These two candidates are the polar opposites and open up the middle, which is what he would need to succeed.
Could he? I like his chances. Watching the first New Hampshire debates, I couldn't help but note the appalling lack of a centrist candidate, despite various attempts from the people on stage, especially on the Republican side. I think they have the most disparity among major candidates and could use a moderate.
I couldn't help but wonder what would happen if they could put up a candidate with Ron Paul's view on the war, Rudy Giuliani's exposure, Mike Huckabee's economics and John McCain's social views. I would hesitate to say Bloomberg really meets any of these criteria, but he is close enough that he just might make for a very interesting election season if he decided to go through with a campaign.
As I mentioned previously, I think the most likely scenario where he runs is if Hillary and Huckabee win the nominations. These two candidates are the polar opposites and open up the middle, which is what he would need to succeed.
Could he? I like his chances. Watching the first New Hampshire debates, I couldn't help but note the appalling lack of a centrist candidate, despite various attempts from the people on stage, especially on the Republican side. I think they have the most disparity among major candidates and could use a moderate.
I couldn't help but wonder what would happen if they could put up a candidate with Ron Paul's view on the war, Rudy Giuliani's exposure, Mike Huckabee's economics and John McCain's social views. I would hesitate to say Bloomberg really meets any of these criteria, but he is close enough that he just might make for a very interesting election season if he decided to go through with a campaign.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)